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Republican Candidates in General
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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
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Location: Taylor Ranch, NM

PostPosted: Fri May 13, 2011 7:38 pm    Post subject: Republican Candidates in General  Reply with quote

[I didn't want to clobber up an individual candidates' thread with generalized comments about the Republican Primary contests and ultimately the Convention; hence this thread]

I see this election as a sea change in the Republican Party - the first in half a century - as the world and the Republican demographics has changed.

The fundamental tenets of small government and minimal taxes have been nothing but catchphrases for years; with Republicans in practice cooperating with the Democrats in stimulating the military-industrial complex with mega-bucks, while compromising with them in back room arranged quid-pro-quos to continue funding the Big-3 of S/S, Medicare and Medicaid.

The Republican neo-conservative philosophy has failed in action over the last decade, as the so-called Christian Right morphed into large numbers of Evangelical Christians in the Republican ranks (40% of Bush's votes in 2000 were from white Evangelicals).

What I see coming during the Republican Primaries and National Convention is a major struggle within the party with the doctrinaire ideologues of the Christian Right (mainstream Christians with adamant positions on gays and abortion) and Republican Tea Partiers (half of all Tea Partiers are white Evangelicals with almost 4 of 5 voting Republican) on one side, with the remainder of the fiscal conservative and neo-conservative Republicans on the other.  

The ideologues will want to nominate one of their own, whereas the pragmatic conservatives will want to nominate someone who can defeat Obama in the General Election by attracting non-Party-affiliated voters.
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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
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Location: Taylor Ranch, NM

PostPosted: Tue May 24, 2011 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

National Poll: Romney Surges after Huckabee & Trump Drop Out

5/18/2011

BOSTON - With Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump declaring they are both out of the running for president of the United States, Mitt Romney has become the clear front-runner among Republican primary voters nationwide, according to a Suffolk University poll.

The former governor found support from 20 percent of all likely GOP primary voters.

Among voters of all parties, Romney was the closest of the Republican challengers tested to catching President Barack Obama (Obama 46 percent vs. Romney 43 percent).

In the GOP primary, Romney's 20 percent was followed by Sarah Palin (12 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), Rudy Giuliani (7 percent), Ron Paul (5 percent), Michele Bachmann (4 percent), Herman Cain (4 percent), Mitch Daniels (4 percent), Tim Pawlenty (3 percent) and Rick Santorum (3 percent), with 20 percent undecided. Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer all received less than 1 percent.

"With Huckabee and Trump out of the race, the whole dynamic has changed," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Boston's Suffolk University. "Romney is the clear front-runner now; that's a position he'll have to be prepared to defend over the coming months."
---

Details from poll of likely voters (plus other stuff): http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/46652.html
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bieramar



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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 2:22 pm    Post subject: Goulash Reply with quote

Associated Press
   
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Likely presidential candidate Mitt Romney hedged Friday on his support for a House Republican budget outline that seeks to reduce spending by cutting federal programs such as Medicare. Romney was asked by a reporter during a stop in a Des Moines suburb whether he would sign the Republican plan if he were president. But the former Massachusetts governor declined to answer. "That's the kind of speculation that is getting the cart ahead of the horse," he said. Romney emphasized he supports the goals of the House plan but will offer his own plan for reducing spending and cutting the federal deficit.

In Johnston, Iowa, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann made it clear that she was leaning toward a presidential run, saying on an Iowa public affairs program the she felt a "calling" to seek the Republican nomination. Bachman repeated her plan to announce her presidential plans next month in Waterloo, Iowa, where she was born.

A week after launching his Republican presidential campaign in Iowa, Tim Pawlenty will be back in the all-important state to campaign on Memorial Day. The former Minnesota governor is due Monday at a pancake breakfast, a midday meet-and-greet and an evening cookout.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is heading to New Hampshire next week, stirring further speculation that he may jump into the 2012 Republican presidential field. Giuliani will spend Thursday in the state, which is scheduled to host the first presidential primary next February.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the longest serving chief executive in the state's history and a politician who has never lost an election, said Friday he will consider seeking the Republican nomination for president. The outspoken conservative said he will consider entering the race after the Texas Legislature adjourns Monday.
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OhwhatthehellI'tryit



Joined: 23 May 2011
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Bachmann's style; honesty, clearly spoken.  Like Palin only more worldly. Wink

Perry, I'd think twice..   Not good on the No, No, No, I won't run and now maybe?  I would have to think he'd do that on issues in the House also.
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coebul



Joined: 18 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

During a talking heads moment on FOX (commentary) it was agreed that not only Romney but all of the front runners would be intentionally vague on how they would deal with federal spending, Medicare and the deficit.  The reason for this stance is they don't want that stance (their words) used against them as plans and negotiations (sausage making) change.  

Romney has said when the time comes he will have his own plan to present.
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Last edited by coebul on Sat May 28, 2011 3:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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OhwhatthehellI'tryit



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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"intentionally"?
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coebul



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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intentionally vague.  Correction made.
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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most all the candidates have positive qualities that some Republicans really like, but which a majority of Democrats and non-affiliated/Independents won't like in the General Election.

At the present time I only see two Republican candidates who have a chance to beat Obama - and then only if he makes a huge faux pas of some sort.

They are Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney. And gleefully[*] I note that neither will find getting the nomination an easy task.

All the others have faithful followings among minority wings - religious conservatives, southern republicans, social conservatives, Tea Partiers, Libertarians - which are beneficial in the Republican Primaries, but which are counterproductive in much of the general population in the General Election.

And it is the General Election which counts for ALL Americans.

The Obama haters/fearers have remained an average of 40% (RasmussenReports created a special category just to track the "strongly disapprove" element after Obama's victory - ranged between 37% to 44% thus far, 38% today) since he was elected with 52% of the vote. They alone can not defeat Obama.

The current breakdown of likely voters targeted in Rasmussen polls is 34.6% Republican, 34.4% Democrat and 31.0% non-affiliated.

Even if all Party folks knee-jerked there still would need to be over half of the non-affiliated votes to defeat Obama - whose popularity among the adult population has remained within the statistical error parameters of his winning 52% since his election, i.e., more lovers/likers than haters/fearers.

Actually the "independent" voters in the General Election are a much higher percentage than the 31% "non-affiliated."  

In Closed Primary states where Party registration is required to vote, many self-identified independents feel forced to register R or D; but have no Party-allegience in the General Election.

[*]Gleefully, as few things would please me more than to see the Republicans diminish their Party's stranglehold on the nomination process via infighting.
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coebul



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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Romney hasn't got a Chinaman's chance of winning the election with or with out a faux pas.

IMHO two issues hamstring him.  Mass. Universal health care and he is Mormon.  

Jon Huntsman has the same Achilles Heel with his membership in LDS.  It is so far off of mainstream I just can't see this country electing him.  

Nope if this is the best the Right can present the country then there is little doubt in my mind 0bama gets another 4 years.  Which IMO would be disastrous for the nation.
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OhwhatthehellI'tryit



Joined: 23 May 2011
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"[*]Gleefully, as few things would please me more than to see the Republicans diminish their Party's stranglehold on the nomination process via infighting."

It's all good Bieramar; I got it.

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