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GOP Convention August 2012
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scrutney
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Joined: 18 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:13 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

bier wrote:
Two former GOP presidents, and several GOP candidates for president/vice-president, and none will be speaking?


i'm pretty sure that was irony

ya wanna slap the mojo on romney's chances?
have palin speak, followed by dubya.
while they may go over well in the auditorium, the folks at home would react like the ayatollah being offered a cuban sandwich.

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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
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Location: Taylor Ranch, NM

PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pre-Convention factoids:

- Since 1960 the average "bump" in the polls after each Democratic Convention has been 7.3%, with the GOP candidate averaging 6.4% -- a 0.9% "wash" within the statistical rate of error.

- Since the Ryan pick, the nationwide average of all popular vote polls has gradually crept from Obama +2.7 to Obama +1.0 (both within the margin of error).

- Since the Ryan pick, in the "battleground" states, Missouri voters have moved toward Obama (following the "legitimate rape" gaffe), while voters in Connecticut, Montana, Michigan and Wisconsin are trending toward Romney.

- Today's Electoral Vote counts continue to show Obama the leader:

Electoral-Vote.com

Obama                 241
Tied/Slightly Lean 106
Romney               191

If election held today,
Obama                 297
Too Close to Call   29
Romney               212

RealClearPolitics.com

Obama                 221
Tied/Slightly Lean 136
Romney               181
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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
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Location: Taylor Ranch, NM

PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The media-published convention TV viewership numbers are of the total audience, by definition all viewers two years old and older.  They are indicative of household interest, especially in comparison to previous election cycles.

2008 vs. 2012 - GOP Convention

The first day of both years' conventions were cancelled due to hurricanes.

In 2008 7.3% (21,528,000) of the total age 2+ population watched the "de facto" opening night (technically "Day 2"); in 2012 7.7% (22,301,000) watched.

In 2008 VP candidate Palin's speech was watched by 12.9% (37,244,000) of the population 2+ - many more than who viewed opening night; and in 2012 VP candidate Ryan's speech was watched by 7.7% (21,942,000), fewer than the opening night viewers.  

Palin drew significantly higher interest than Ryan; also significant is that fewer watched Wednesday night this year for Ryan's acceptance than who watched the opening night.

On the other hand 0.5% MORE (7.7% vs. 7.2%) - have showed interest this year than in 2008. That's encouraging for the Romney/Ryan ticket.

More importantly, however, in regard to prospective voters, are the numbers/percentages of viewers sorted by age demographic.

This year only 2.2% (1,483,000) of the 18-34 year olds watched the first night, and only 3.2% (2,129,000) tuned in for Ryan's speech.

But a whopping 18.8% (14,661,000) of the 55+ older folks - 1 of 5 potential voters in the group with the highest percentage of turning out to vote - tuned in on Tuesday; dropping slightly to 17.6% (13,670,000) on Wednesday to hear Ryan.

The 35-54 year old prospective voters totalled 6.7% (5,414,000) on Tuesday, with a few more, 6.7% (5,482,000) for Ryan on Wednesday.

2012 Networks measured were:
ABC, CBS, CNBC, CNN, FOXNC, CRNT, MSNBC, NBC and PBS

2008 Networks were:
ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOX News, MSNBC
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coebul



Joined: 18 Nov 2010
Posts: 3285
Location: Northwest USA

PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

scrutney wrote:
bier wrote:
Two former GOP presidents, and several GOP candidates for president/vice-president, and none will be speaking?


i'm pretty sure that was irony

ya wanna slap the mojo on romney's chances?
have palin speak, followed by dubya.
while they may go over well in the auditorium, the folks at home would react like the ayatollah being offered a cuban sandwich.
It is a new party.  Full of hope and change.....
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bieramar



Joined: 19 Nov 2010
Posts: 4441
Location: Taylor Ranch, NM

PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FINAL VIEWER ESTIMATES from Nielsen

2008 vs. 2012 - GOP Convention

    2008         2012
DAY 1: Cancelled due to hurricanes

DAY 2: Delegates Roll Call  

21,528,000   22,301,000

DAY 3: VP Candidate Speech

37,244,000   21,942,000  

DAY 4: Presidential Candidate Speech

38,933,000   30,251,000

The numbers of viewers sorted by age demographic in 2012:

This year only 1,483,000 of the 18-34 year olds watched the first night, 2,129,000 tuned in for Ryan's speech, and 3,314,000 for Romney's.

14,661,000 of the 55+ older folks tuned in on Tuesday for Mrs. Romney's speech, dropping to 13,670,000 on Wednesday to hear Ryan, with 17,539,000 for Romney on Thursday.

The 35-54 year old prospective voters totalled 5,414,000 on Tuesday, 5,482,000 on Wednesday, and 8,329,000 on Thursday.

2012 Networks measured were:
ABC, CBS, CNBC, CNN, FOXNC, CRNT, MSNBC, NBC and PBS

2008 Networks were:
ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOX News, MSNBC

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