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Romney Ryan 2012 - The Ticket and The Campaign
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tsiya



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:48 am    Post subject:  Reply with quote

Mitt messed up with the rule change crap, got a whole bunch of folks really pissed off about that.  

http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2012/...ed-voting-before-voting-finished/
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bieramar



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

scrutney wrote:
honestly, i didn't think he had it in him...but mitt delivered a damn fine speech.

he'll get the traditional 5 point bump.


Romney's Big Night

FactCheck.org
August 31, 2012

TAMPA, Fla. - In a speech heavy on anecdotal history but short on policy details, Mitt Romney avoided major falsehoods in making his case to the American public while accepting the presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention.

Even a key Democratic strategist, Bill Burton, a former press secretary for President Obama, tweeted shortly after the speech ended: "Romney actually avoided almost all of the lies from Ryan's speech." That was a reference to Rep. Paul Ryan's address the night before, which we found to contain a number of false and misleading claims.

In Romney's case, we found a few bits of exaggeration and puffery. He exaggerated the loss in family income that has occurred under Obama, for example, including 13 months of losses that actually occurred before the president took office.

And he made a back-handed accusation that Obama has raised taxes on middle-class taxpayers, when in fact the president has lobbied for and signed several temporary reductions.

Likewise, we found some misleading claims from convention speakers who preceded Romney on the final day of the GOP convention. For example, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich repeated the bogus claim that Obama has "gutted"¯ the welfare overhaul law, when all he has done is allow states to seek flexibility to experiment with applying the law's work requirement.

And we even caught a mistake by actor/director Clint Eastwood, who put in a surprise appearance but wasn't fully briefed on the proper way to spin statistics about unemployment.

Middle Class "Crushed"

One section in particular drew our attention. Romney declared that "this Obama economy has crushed the middle class," and rattled off some horrible-sounding statistics. But we found some of them to be exaggerated or in need of added context.

Romney: "In the richest country in the history of the world, this Obama economy has crushed the middle class. Family income has fallen by $4,000, but health insurance premiums are higher, food prices are higher, utility bills are higher, and gasoline prices have doubled. Today more Americans wake up in poverty than ever before. Nearly one out of six Americans is living in poverty. Look around you. These are not strangers. These are our brothers and sisters, our fellow Americans."

Family income: Family income has not fallen by $4,000 under Obama, as Romney implied. That figure comes from a study by Sentier Research, and while most of the drop occurred after the president took office in January 2009, some of it (the study didn't say exactly how much) occurred in the 13 months before that.

The study measured the drop in family income starting in December 2007, when the recession officially started, and ending in June 2012. The study noted that income has fallen more since the economic recovery officially began (in June 2009) than during the recession itself.

Poverty: It's true that "more Americans wake up in poverty than ever before," as Romney said. But it's also true that there are more Americans, period.

The poverty rate - that is, the percentage of all Americans in poverty - is nowhere near a record, even for the relatively brief historical period since 1959, when the government first started measuring poverty.

The raw number of individuals in poverty in 2010 was 46.2 million, according to the most recent Census figures. And the poverty rate went up that year to 15.1 percent - the highest since 1993. But as Census noted, that "was 7.3 percentage points lower than the poverty rate in 1959, the first year for which poverty estimates are available." Furthermore, Census noted that the number in poverty had increased for four consecutive years, so the rise started well before Obama took office.

Gasoline: Romney said "gasoline prices have doubled" since Obama took office. That's correct, but only because gasoline prices were unusually depressed when Obama was inaugurated due to the recession and financial crisis.

The average price for regular gasoline was $3.84 last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a bit more than double the $1.89 average on the week Obama was sworn in. But the average exceeded $4 a gallon for eight weeks during the summer of 2008, and it has never reached $4 under Obama.

Premiums: Romney said that "health insurance premiums are higher"¯ under Obama. But premiums have been going up for years. Experts say the federal health care law was responsible for only a small part of the recent hike in employer-based plans.

The average cost of an employer-sponsored family insurance plan went up 9 percent from 2010 to 2011, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation's annual survey. Several independent experts told us that rising medical costs were still the main culprit. The health care law, they said, was responsible for 1 point to 3 points of that 9-point increase.

And the reason for that is improved coverage. Insurance companies are required under the law to include free preventive care, coverage for adult children up to age 26, coverage for children regardless of preexisting conditions, and an increase in annual limits.

Rising premiums are nothing new.
Between 2001 and 2011, family premiums for employer-sponsored plans went up 113 percent. Year to year the size of the change in premiums has varied, but it has always been in one direction: up.

Food: Romney said "food prices are higher" under Obama, and that's also true, though not by a lot. The index measuring the average consumer price of all food and beverages (including restaurant meals) stood just 6.2 percent higher last month than it was when Obama took office, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Another Middle-Class Falsehood

Romney said "unlike President Obama, I will not raise taxes on the middle class."¯

But Obama has not raised taxes on middle-income taxpayers, and, in fact, he has targeted tax cuts and credits to benefit them.

Among the president's major tax cuts and credits:

- Making Work Pay Tax Credit. For two years, 2009 and again in 2010, the stimulus law provided up to $400 to individuals earning up to $75,000, and up to $800 to couples earning up to $150,000.

- Payroll tax cut. When the Making Work Pay credit expired, Obama successfully pushed Congress to cut the employee portion of the Social Security payroll tax in 2011 from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent. The tax is applied to the first $110,100 of wages, and it resulted in an annual maximum savings of $2,200. The tax cut was extended through 2012.

- American Opportunity Tax Credit. Also part of the stimulus, this is a college tuition tax credit. It modified and expanded the existing Hope Credit. It was intended for two years, but was extended through 2012. The full credit of $2,500 is available for individuals earning $80,000 or less and families earning $160,000 or less. The Hope Credit maximum was $1,800 in 2008.

The Republican nominee did not explain what he meant by his remarks. But some Republicans have claimed that the president's health care law amounts to a tax on the middle class, because it imposes a penalty on those who do not buy health insurance. But, as we have written before, those arguments are overstated.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 3 million taxpayers earning less than $120,000 will pay an average penalty of $667 by 2016.

Tax Exaggeration

Kerry Healey, who served as Romney's lieutenant governor, boasted that Romney "cut taxes 19 times"¯ as governor. But tax rates remained unchanged under Romney, and Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax group, called his tax record "mixed,"¯ because he raised hundreds of millions of dollars by increasing fees and closing loopholes in the corporate tax structure.

The Romney campaign's list of 19 tax cuts includes some business tax cuts and a host of relatively minor cuts and credits - including a couple of two-day sales-tax holidays, which Club for Growth dismissed as "gimmicky."¯ The list also includes such things as a "fire safety tax deduction,"¯ a "motion picture tax credit"¯ and a "historic rehabilitation tax credit."¯

In its white paper on Romney, Club for Growth singled out two tax cuts for praise: legislation he signed to prevent state residents from having to pay $275 million in retroactive capital gains taxes, and another bill that provided property tax relief for seniors.

But Club for Growth called his record "mixed" because of the new revenue he raised. As we have written before, Romney in his first year raised fees by more than $400 million, and generated another $150 million by closing loopholes.

Welfare Law "Gutted"

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dutifully repeated a meritless Romney claim, asserting that Obama "gutted" the 1990s' welfare overhaul, and accusing him of "waiving" the law's work requirement.

Gingrich: "Tragically, President Obama gutted this achievement [welfare reform]. "Obama's" waiving of the work requirements in welfare reform is just one example of his direct repudiation of President Reagan's values."

Gingrich didn't elaborate or supply evidence of how Obama's actions "gutted" the law. Gingrich would have been particularly qualified to do so - if there was substance to the accusation - since it was he who pushed the welfare bill through Congress when he was speaker and Bill Clinton was president. The fact is, Obama has simply allowed state governors to seek waivers from the law's requirements if they can propose a more effective way to move people from welfare to work, and show that they can produce that result. Nothing has been waived yet.

And as we've noted, states have persistently fallen far short of achieving the law's goal of putting at least half of recipients in jobs or job training. When Obama took office, only 29 percent of cash assistance recipients nationally were complying with the work requirement, and that had not changed as of the most recent figures.

Women-Filled Administration?

Jane Edmonds, former secretary of Massachusetts' Department of Workforce Development, cherry-picked statistics to make Romney's record on appointing women to government positions look better than it is. She wrongly said that the percentage of women in senior-level government jobs went up under Romney, but the figure actually declined slightly.

Edmonds: "One area where he made a positive difference is in improving the representation of women in senior positions in Massachusetts State Government. Before Gov. Romney took office in 2003, women were significantly underrepresented among top roles in government, with 52 percent of the population but just 30 percent of the jobs. Over the next two and a half years, 42 percent of the new appointments made by Governor Romney were women."

Edmonds' figures are correct, and they are touted on the website of MassGAP (Massachusetts Government Appointments Project), a bipartisan coalition of women's groups created in 2002 to increase the number of women appointed to top government positions. As Edmonds said, women made up 52 percent of the state's population, but in September 2002, they held only 30 percent of top government positions. And 42 percent of Romney's appointments - 14 of 33 appointments - were women during his first two and a half years as governor.

But then the percentage of women being appointed to these jobs slipped, according to a 2007 study by MassGAP and the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy at the University of Massachusetts Boston.

Over Romney's entire tenure as governor, the percentage of female appointments was 31 percent. And overall, the percentage of women in senior-level government positions declined slightly, to 27.6 percent, according to the study.

The study said the MassGAP effort showed "promising" impact with the high percentage of Romney's early appointments, but the later appointments didn't show "a continued commitment to the selection of women for high-level posts." The gains for women between 2002 and 2006 "were elusive," the study said. "[W]omen at the end of the Romney administration did not hold a higher percentage of senior-level positions than when he took office."

Make My Mistake

And we don't want to ignore Clint Eastwood - who, unlike Obama, was not invisible at the convention.

Eastwood mistakenly said that 23 million Americans are "unemployed."¯ Actually, the figure is a little more than half that - 12.8 million in July, according to the most recent figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Eastwood didn't phrase things as artfully as most other convention speakers. The often-used 23 million figure also includes 8.2 million who are employed in part-time jobs but say they are seeking full-time work, the so-called "under-employed."¯ And it also includes another 2.5 million who say they would like a job and would take one, but haven't looked for one in the last four weeks.

We hate to nit-pick one of our favorite actor/directors, who is not all that used to the ways politicians inflate numbers without actually saying something false. (He could have said 23 million who "need work" or "are suffering from lack of jobs"¯ and not been technically wrong.)

But then, Eastwood was mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea, Calif., and so he knows something of politics. And other film stars have gone on to run for even higher office. To which we say: Go ahead, make our day.
~ Robert Farley, with Eugene Kiely, Lori Robertson, Ben Finley and Brooks Jackson

Note to Readers:
Our deputy managing editor, Robert Farley, is on the scene in Tampa at the convention center. This story was written with the help of the entire staff, based in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Next week, we will dispatch our managing editor, Lori Robertson, to Charlotte, N.C., for the Democratic convention. We intend to vet the major speeches at both conventions for factual accuracy, applying the same standards to both.
--
http://factcheck.org/2012/08/romneys-big-night/

===

The average GOP candidates' post-Convention acceptance speech "bump" since 1960 has been 6.4%.

I predict a 4%-5% bump in Romney's personal popularity, which will stabilize at that higher level.

BUT, I'm also predicting only a 3%-4% bump as measured by the RealClearPolitics average of Romney vs. Obama polls, i.e. Romney pulling ahead a point or two - within the statistical margin of error - for a week.

Then there may be a small Obama bump - the Democratic candidates' bump since 1960 has averaged 7.3% - next week, bringing back the RealClearPolitics average to the pre-conventions point.  In other words, a "wash" - but lots of conventioneers had a lot of fun!

And the dissembling and half-truth spins from both Parties' speakers will furnish fodder until the election. (Maybe Biden will be hospitalized by then?).
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tsiya



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ask me about THIS family's income and WHEN it went to Hell.
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bieramar



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tsiya wrote:
Ask me about THIS family's income and WHEN it went to Hell.


OK - What has happened to YOUR family's income?

I don't care WHEN, but I am interested in HOW and WHY and WHAT FACTORS you perceive as causing the changes.

Especially - if applicable - which president's executive actions CAUSED the changes; and which congress's laws CAUSED the changes.

In short, WHOM do you blame, and WHY?
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coebul



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can tell you what happened to "MY" family income.  It has gone straight to hell and while I don't blame 0bama or Bush I do blame Clinton and some of the leadership in this and past congresses.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: The "bounce" Reply with quote

From RasmussenReports.com today:
---
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Today is the first time Romney has held the advantage in a week.

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters now see Obama as Very Liberal, and 30% see Romney as Very Conservative.

This update is based on nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, nearly all of the interviews were conducted before  Mitt Romney's speech to the Republican National Convention last night. Some interviews for today's update were conducted before the prime-time speeches on the first night of the convention.

However, the daily tracking so far does indicates that Romney has received a modest "bounce"¯ from the convention. It will take another few days to fully measure the size of that bounce and another week to measure the Obama "bounce"¯ from the Democratic convention.
--- end Rasmussen excerpt ---

And RealClearPolitics.com's
average of all polls shows Obama 46.5% to Romney's 45.9% of the popular vote nationwide.
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Phred



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In other words, it remains a virtual tie.
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scrutney
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

is it my imagination or has this presidential campaign gone to the dogs?
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tsiya



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://youtu.be/jE3cpsdMg3Q Very Happy
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bieramar



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Politico's 'devastating' Mitt Romney campaign exposé - 5 revelations

By The Week's Editorial Staff
The Week 
September 17, 2012

Team Romney starts the week dealing with a report about its apparently dysfunctional campaign. A look at five of the juiciest morsels.

Publicly, Mitt Romney and his allies are cautiously optimistic that the Republican challenger will beat President Obama in November; privately, Team Romney is apparently complaining to Politico about why they think their candidate is losing. In a lengthy, gossip-filled exposé on the inner workings - and foibles - of the Romney campaign, Politico's Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei speak with mostly unidentified "Romney aides, advisers, and friends" about how a candidate running on his business competence has ended up atop such a dysfunctional organization.

"Only a fool would declare the race over at this point," says Will Bunch at the Philadelphia Daily News, but Politico has served up a pretty "devastating perspective on a presidential campaign in total disarray."

Here, five highlights from this inside look at a high-stakes, high-pressure political brain trust:

1. Meet the scapegoat: Stuart Stevens

The bulk of the article is internal griping about Romney's chief strategist, Stuart Stevens. Allen and VandeHei describe Stevens as Romney's "mercurial campaign muse" with a "mad-professor aura," an eccentric list of hobbies and interests, and a "big-city, Hollywood aura" that doesn't sit well with some conservatives. One colleague calls the 58-year-old Mississippi native a "tortured artist," but "even people who like Stevens and wish him well say that he simply has too many jobs within the Romney campaign," says Rich Lowry at National Review: Chief strategist, chief ad maker, and chief speechwriter.

To get a sense of Stevens' importance, say Allen and VandeHei, imagine George W. Bush's 2000 campaign "with one person playing the roles of Karl Rove, Mark McKinnon, and Michael Gerson."

2. Stevens spiked two versions of Romney's convention speech

Politico's "prime example" of how Stevens has hijacked Romney's campaign is "an exquisitely detailed chronology of how Romney botched his convention speech," says Marc Ambinder at The Week.

Stevens tapped veteran Republican scribe Peter Wehner to write the big speech, but when Wehner turned in a draft he was pleased with, Stevens scrapped the speech eight days before the convention, "frantically contacted" two other speechwriters, John McConnell and Matthew Scully for a rewrite, then used only one paragraph of their draft. "The speech that was actually delivered, it turned out, had been cobbled together by Stevens and Romney himself," Allen and VandeHei report, and they made "a colossal oversight: Romney did not include a salute to troops serving in war zones, and did not mention al Qaeda or Afghanistan."

3. Stewart also gave Clint Eastwood carte blanche

"And then there was Eastwood's speech, or, as Politico more accurately puts it, his 'rambling comedy routine,'" says Taylor Berman at Gawker. The actor was added to the program mere weeks before the convention, after Eastwood and Romney chatted at an Idaho fundraiser, and Stevens was so enamored of "the idea of the tough-talking American icon greeting the millions of viewers tuning in to the main event," he let Eastwood be the only speaker to go live with no vetting. "The result was amazing and hilarious," says Gawker's Berman, "but, alas, terrible for the campaign." I figured that if anyone but the top strategist had been responsible for the Eastwood debacle, says National Review's Lowry, "that person would have been canned." Now we know why no heads have rolled.

4. Romney is unlikely to fire anyone

Despite Politico's "blistering" pile-on, Stewart's job is safe, according to a senior Romney adviser, says McKay Coppins at BuzzFeed. That's classic Romney, a campaign official tells Politico. "Mitt is a sticker - he stays with you," a trait evident from his years at Bain, where a bad investment wasn't a career-ender. That means "none of this is going to get fixed. This is the organization, and this is who Mitt is betting on to win." Another Politico source - "a person who recently was alone with Romney" - has a softer take: "Big changes would destabilize the thing."

5. Ultimately, this article is about Romney

"Inside-campaign dynamics are always fascinating," says National Review's Lowry, but "this ultimately comes down to the kind of campaign Romney wants to run." If he wanted to, say, "get more substantive," he could "do it tomorrow (and should)." Since Romney pasted together his own speech, we also get a view at his "fairly appalling" set of priorities, says the Philadelphia Daily News' Bunch. Leaving out the troops "speaks horribly of a man so focused on becoming 'America's CEO' that the very concept of a commander-in-chief is a distant afterthought."

That was a mistake, says The Week's Ambinder, but a small one. This kind of internal sniping always happens in these big, unwieldy presidential campaigns, and certainly as a "premortem obituary," the Politico piece is premature. This race is far from over, and "if Mitt Romney loses, he will lose because he is Mitt Romney, and not because Stuart Stevens is a disorganized, charming, inconsistent half-brilliant half-crazy consultant."

===
The entire Politico article is here:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81280.html

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